November 2002 commentary
A few issues to consider:-

1. UNITED CONDEMNATION - TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF WORLD DIVISION

Requirement - United & global condemnation of Iraq's lack of cooperation to demonstrate to the world that it has abandoned all its programs for development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The editor is convinced that such condemnation, allied with a united threat to take action to disarm this rogue regime would REDUCE the risk of unilateral action by the United States and its allies.

Moslem countries in particular MUST participate in such condemnation.

Weapons inspectors are no solution to uncover hidden manufacturing or storage facilities for WMD.

2. CONDEMN THE ARMS SUPPLIERS TO ROGUE REGIMES

Even more important is that all nations whose industries are (or suspected of being) suppliers of material required in the manufacture of WMD - should receive global condemnation and severe sanction.

Yugoslavia, France, Germany, China, Korea etc. are among countries who some suspect of conflict of economic interest. Leaders of those countries should go to extreme lengths to prove their innocence.....

All nations that are identified as having a 'conlict of interest' affecting their decisions to condemn Iraq, should be disqualified from any UN voting on the issue.

Also, the world should ostracize and impose sanctions against ALL such nations that are proven to supply 'rogue regimes' with either WMD or materials for WMD development.

3. DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS FOR ALL WORLD LEADERS

ALL responsible leaders of the worlds nations should together embark on extended diplomatic missions to the unconvinced nations of the world during the next 30 days with a concerted appeal to all other nations opposed to WMD disarmament.

Bush, Putin, Blair, Chirac, Schroder etc this means you....

The primary objective of these missions would be to gain global condemnation for ALL countries with active WMD programmes, but focusing particularly on the need to avoid armed conflict in the middle east scheduled to commence no later than the end of January 2003.

The UN should also demonstrate that it is not a totally ineffective body, whose contribution to world peace is little more than than an ineffectual gesture. In terms of cost / benefit to the peoples of the world, the UN has a lot to prove at this time to secure its future place in the world of peacekeeping.

5 January 2003

What happened in the last 60 days:-

• President Chirac and Chancellor Schroder provided evidence of an uncommitted
  Europe (as usual) - we could not expect anything else.
• Tariq Aziz - has become Saddam's mouthpiece pushing out the same disinformation, propaganda as he did in the lead up to the Gulf war in 1991.
• Iraq has denied possession (ownership is the key word) of ANY weapons of mass destruction.
• US and UK forces have been placed on stand-by on the borders of Iraq - in the event of conflict.
• The weapons inspectors have found - no evidence of WMD - but there was never any expectation that they would discover the 'hidden caches' of Saddam Hussein.
• Interviews with Iraqi scientists are a joke - No Iraqi is going to 'tell all' to UN inspectors - unless he and his wider family are offered asylum and a future life in a country of their choice. And then the value of such confessions is questionable....
• President Bush achieved some of the necessary goals

The future

In the opinion of the editor, the world is on the point of 'global divide' - primarily a moslem and christian polarisation, also involving many splinter groups opposed to war and the rationality of conflict of any type...

Without wishing to be over gloomy about the future, the world should wake up to the fact that we are all about to experience a world where the political leaders become motivated by fear rather than goodwill (if there ever was any...).

A return to the stability of of 2 superpowers will never return....

There are too many countries in possession of WMD.

There will be no uniformed enemy in the conflict to come, and following the 'open immigration' policies of many of the world's countries since World War II, the dangers of continuing terrorism will become the primary challenge for the leaders of the world.

Internment of civilian sympathisers is not a viable option - as it was in 1939.

Allies of today - who suffer severe economic hardship in the aftermath of a conflict with Iraq may rightly feel abused, and future elections in such countries could see fewer & fewer allies of the US and UK.

BUT

There is no real alternative....

Thank god that there are no Neville Chamberlain's in the important hot seats in 2003.

22 January 2003

The news media in particular CNN and BCC World service continue to spin their wheels, and appear to be quite incapable of providing intelligent analysis in the countdown to war with Iraq, in particular in relation UNSCR 1441 - which was not
a license for Iraq to play 'hide and seek' with UN appointed inspectors - but rather a demand from the world community for Iraq to:

1. declare all and any weapons of mass destruction
2. and to provide evidence of destruction of such stocks of WMD known
   to exist.

Now, the unholy (or holy - dependent upon your point of view) alliance of France and Germany is more much more likely to 'backfire' on Chirac and Schroder in 2 ways.

The opposition of Chirac and Schroder to support the condemnation of Iraq behaviour will reduce pressure on Sadaam Hussein to disarm and to comply with UNSCR 1441 - but WILL also achieve the opposite of the intended effect and increase the likelihood of war in the Middle East.

This conlusion is arrived at by considering that the US together with its committed allies WILL unquestionably go to war if SH does not disarm, and the US is much better off without uncommitted (if not two faced allies) whose participation could bring about a half hearted solution as occurred during the Gulf War.

The lack of support to the USA will be seen as an unfreindly act which will certainly have future economic or trade repercussions.............

The World in the 21st century has no place for deranged dictators in any country, and if the UN remains impotent - then 'God Bless America'....

A united Europe could have begun its disintegration.....

18 February 2003

Europe is sharply divided - France .... and the rest

The general population of the world is anti-war - unsurprising, since no-one in their right mind would support conflict at any time. But Politicians should have more responsibility... than their citizens.

France - The wild card

Chirac, in the middle France's military intervention in Cote d'Ivoire is flailing his arms - not against the major threats to world peace - but against the East European countries aspiring to EU membership for expressing their support of the U.S. stance against Iraq and global terrorism.

France would appear to be sending mixed messages, and Chirac's comments could be interpreted by EUs transitional countries as 'Toe the French line" or else.....

Perhaps the editor is mistaken..... BUT this stance smells strongly of veiled threats of blackmail or overripe cheese.......

Vested interests are suspected, and France has always protected its vested interests to selfish extremes - "c'est normal". Chirac knows that France has a high proportion of North African immigrants, and that there will be an inevitable backlash following any 'disarmament by force' of Iraq.

Does Chirac's position go further than this...........

France, Belgium and Germany have contributed significantly to Iraq's WMD programmes in the past:-

France - contributions to Saddam Hussein has been mainly in the form of assistance with Nuclear and Missile programs.

Germany - provision of unduly large shipments of restricted chemicals - whose use is not in doubt..

Belgium - acted as 'middleman shippers' of restricted Chemicals

Chirac should pay more attention to the real dangers presented by Iraq - recommended reading should be the article published by Iraq Watch - Shopping with Saddam Hussein.

France, Germany and Belgium should all go to great lengths to remedy the fact that exports from their countries has greatly contributed to the current crisis. - For a list of some specific contracts - read here