Regional Analyses

Executive Summary

In recent years, major studies published by the World Health Organisation, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) and others have identified the growing importance of road crashes as a cause of death, particularly in developing and transitional countries. This growing awareness of the problem is reflected in the recent establishment of the Global Road Safety Partnership (GRSP), an association of private sector, civil society and government organisations collaborating together to improve the road safety situation worldwide

In order to provide the GRSP with an update of the road safety problem worldwide, a study was undertaken by TRL with the following objectives:

• To derive an estimate of road crash fatalities worldwide and on a regional basis.
• To provide an estimate of crash costs worldwide in relation to Gross National Product (GNP).
• To obtain regional analyses of fatality trends.
• To identify current fatality rates and risk (deaths per 10,000 vehicles and per 100,000 population respectively) and also casualty trends by age, sex and road user type.

The methodology undertaken was based on official reported road fatalities, i.e. police databases, but adjusted to accommodate the following 1) countries without any published road fatality statistics, 2) updating reported road fatalities to the current year (1999), and 3) under-reporting. The latter included two different problems: under-recording, i.e. casualties reported to the police but omitted from official statistics, and non-reporting, i.e. fatalities which were never reported to the police. The extent and impact of under-reporting, especially in developing countries, was highlighted with documented examples.

The study estimated that in 1999 between 750,000 and 880,000 people died from road crashes and that the majority of these deaths occurred in developing and transitional nations (85 per cent). Almost half of all estimated deaths occurred in the Asia-Pacific region. This compares with a recent estimate by the World Health Organisation of over a million deaths in 1998. Study findings also indicate that over the next ten to twenty year the number of people dying annually in road crashes may rise to 1 million to 1.3 million respectively.

Estimates suggest that 23-34 million people are injured worldwide in road crashes—a value almost twice that previously estimated. The problem of injury under-reporting is perceived to be even more serious with a fraction of injury road crashes being reported in many less motorised countries (LMC).

Trend data showed that the total number of people killed in road crashes in regions of the developing world continued to increase, whereas in the West there has been a steady decrease over the last fifteen years or so. For example, between 1987-1995 deaths in the Asia-Pacific rose by 40 per cent, in Africa by 26 per cent (excluding South Africa where the increase was minimal) and the Middle East/North Africa region by over 36 per cent. Road deaths doubled in a few Latin America countries and rose by 16 per cent in Brazil. Central and Eastern Europe showed wide variation with fatalities increasing by 31 percent in Poland but decreasing in other countries by up to36 per cent. Conversely road deaths in highly motorized countries (HMC) fell by about 10 per cent.

Growth rates are sensitive to the time period selected and analysis method used but the general trends show global road fatalities increasing at a slower rate in the next two decades. Based on trend series data from a limited number of countries (43), the increase in fatalities in Africa and Latin America is expected to continue to increase for a few more years before slowing down while the fatality growth in Asia and the Middle East is slowing down. The decrease in fatalities in the West is expected to continue but at a slower rate.

A review was undertaken of those countries which have attempted to cost road crashes. It was found that as a percentage of GNP, costs ranged from as low as 0.3 percent to over 4 per cent. In order to obtain an estimate of cost worldwide, a broad (and albeit crude) assumption was made that in developing countries the annual cost of road crashes is about 1 per cent of GNP (a value used for many years based on early research in this topic), in transitional countries about 1.5 per cent and developed countries 2 percent. Estimates were derived of what this meant in global and regional terms and it was found that in 1998, global costs (using the above assumptions) might have been of the order of US$500 billion and in developing and transitional countries about US$60 billion.

Results show that the highest fatality rates (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles) worldwide occur in African countries, particularly Ethiopia, Uganda and Malawi whilst fatality risk (deaths/100,000 population) is highest in a disparate group of countries including Thailand, Malaysia, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.

As might be expected, males in the most economically active age group make up the largest proportion of reported victims of road crashes. Previous studies have found that children in developing countries tend to be more at risk than in the developed world. However, they account for a relatively small percent of reported road crash casualties.

Women’s fatality involvement appears to increase with motorisation. It should be noted that while women in LMCs may currently have a low accident risk, research indicates that the crash consequences can be more severe for women as there is often less investment in their medical treatment and recovery. Furthermore, their legal status as widows is often very unfavourable and the loss of a husband can mean the break up of a family.

It should also be emphasised that vulnerable road users, i.e. pedestrians and two wheelers (motorcyclists and bicyclists), but especially pedestrians, are a particularly high-risk group throughout Africa and Asia as well as the Middle East. Car occupant casualties dominate in the highly motorised countries (HMCs) and are much more common in the Latin America / Caribbean region.

Finally the report identifies weaknesses in the quality of existing data, particularly from developing countries and highlights areas that could be examined within the GRSP programme so that a greater understanding of the global road crash situation can be obtained.