Regional Analyses

5 Summary and conclusions

The GRSP was launched in order to ‘reduce the number of deaths, injuries and disabilities and associated social costs of road crashes through partnerships which promote collaboration and coordination of road safety activities among GRSP participants’.

The World Bank, DFID (UK) and TRL agreed jointly to fund a study in order to assist the GRSP to define as best as possible the magnitude of the road safety problem, particularly in LMCs. The results of this study are presented in this report but it should be emphasized that the study itself has highlighted the difficulty in obtaining a reliable annual estimate of global road crash fatalities and injuries.

Using published data as a base, the study estimates that in1999 between 750,000 and 880,000 people may die as a result of road crashes and that the majority of these deaths are occurring in the LMC regions, with approximately half in Asia-Pacific. This compares with a recent estimate by the World Health Organisation of over a million deaths in 1998.

Road fatalities, whether 750,000 each year or in excess of 1 million are still a leading cause of death and available data sources show that they are an even greater cause of premature mortality. Road fatalities are expected to continue to increase with a fatality toll between 900 thousand and 1.1 million in 2010 and reach between 1.1 million and 1.3 million in 2020.

This study has also produced a fairly crude estimate of annual injuries that indicates that in 1999, between 23 to34 million people were injured in road crashes worldwide. Due to the unreliability of the data and the extent of under-reporting, the severity of road crashes as a major cause of injury is being seriously under-estimated.

Information from those countries which have attempted to cost road crashes on an annual basis now suggests that road crashes may be costing closer to 2 per cent of GNP per annum than the often used value of 1 per cent in motorised countries. However in developing countries costs are proportionately less than this and 1 per cent of GNP may still be a reasonable (but albeit crude) estimate. In transitional countries cost probably lies somewhere between the two. Estimates were derived of what this meant in global and regional terms and it was found the global cost in 1998 might have been of the order US$520billion. The cost in the LMC regions, using the stated criteria, would have been about US$65 billion.

Trend data showed that the total number of people killed in road crashes in regions of the developing world continues to increase, whereas in the West there has been a steady decrease over the last fifteen years or so. For example, between 1987-1995 deaths in the Asia-Pacific rose by 40 per cent, in Africa by 26 per cent (excluding South Africa where deaths increased very little) and the Middle East/North Africa region by over 36 per cent. Road deaths doubled in a few Latin America countries and rose by 16 per cent in Brazil. Central and Eastern Europe showed wide variation with fatalities increasing in Poland by 31 per cent but while decreasing in other countries by about 36 per cent. Conversely road deaths in highly motorised countries fell by about 10 per cent.

Growth rates are highly sensitive to the time period selected and analysis method used but the general trends shows global road fatalities increasing at a slower rate in the next two decades. Based on trend series data from a limited number of countries (43), the increase in fatalities in Africa and Latin America will continue to increase for a few more years before slowing down while the fatality growth in Asia and the Middle East is slowing down. The decrease in fatalities in the West is expected to continue but at a slower rate.

Results also show that the highest fatality rates (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles) worldwide occur in African countries, particularly Ethiopia, Uganda and Malawi whilst fatality risk (deaths per 100,000 population) is highest in a disparate group of countries including Thailand, Malaysia, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.

Males in the most economically active age group makeup the largest proportion of reported victims of road crashes. Previous studies have found that children in developing countries tend to be more at risk than in the developed world. However, they account for a relatively small percent of reported road crash casualties.

Women’s fatality involvement appears to increase with motorisation. It should be noted that while women in less motorised countries may currently have a low accident risk, research shows that the crash consequences are often more severe for women as there is often less investment in their medical treatment and recovery. Furthermore, their legal status as widows is often very unfavourable and the loss of a husband can mean the break up of a family.

It should be emphasised that pedestrians are a particularly high-risk group throughout Africa and Asia as well as the Middle East. Car occupant casualties dominate in HMCs and are much more common in the Latin America/ Caribbean region.

5.1 Areas for future consideration

Based on the data available, this study has provided an estimate of the current road fatality toll both globally and by region. It has also, shown the weaknesses of the existing data and the need to put any road casualty estimate into context. Data on fatalities is more readily available, but it is likely that casualty information would present a clearer overall picture of how much road crashes impact on life and the economy. The following points show possible areas that could be examined within the GRSP programme so that a greater understanding of the road crash situation can be obtained.

• Fatalities represent the ‘tip of the road casualty iceberg’, and much more priority needs to be given to the collection of road injury data. This information can then be used to assess the relative importance of the problem from both an economic and social viewpoint.
• A more accurate picture of the number of injuries sustained in road crashes would be obtained from hospital data. Hospital recording systems could be improved and complement the police system. The medical community, led by WHO, could give greater priority to monitoring road crash casualties and include road crashes in national hospital surveillance systems.
• The accident database in many countries could be improved with an accident-recording database such as MAAP, which provides an easy to use and low cost method of storing and analysing data.
• Evidence exists that inadequate use is made of even the limited amount of accident information collected in developing countries. More research is needed into the dissemination and application of crash data in selected countries.
• The economic costs of road crashes are, in general, not well understood as much of the cost is hidden and incurred in small-scale crashes rather than in large incidents like rail or air disasters. Further research is merited on crash costing, including the application of crash costs.
• Crash statistics alone are insufficient to assess the road safety situation and other performance indicators, especially those that can be targeted at improving vulnerable road user safety, should be used. Possible indicators include the number of pedestrian crossings installed, number of safety audits conducted, i.e. inspecting a road for the accident, number of hazardous locations improved, etc.

This study has attempted to identify the magnitude and nature of the road safety problem worldwide but particularly in the LMC regions of Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. Hopefully the newly formed GRSP can assist to reduce this global toll of death and injury by the mechanism of partnerships that promote collaboration and coordination of road safety activities worldwide.

6 Acknowledgements

The International Division of TRL carried out the analysis described in this report. Thanks are given to Dr. Iain York at TRL for assistance with the statistical analysis.

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